Modern Military Power (DHP-P242)

Spring 2027 · DHP P242 · Tufts University · 3 credits · Undergraduate

Could the Arab states have defeated Israel in 1967? Could Iraq have resisted the United States in 1991? Could Russia have successfully conquered Ukraine in February 2022? Every one of these questions, which had significant effects on policymakers’ decisions before each conflict, hinge on estimates of military power and the potential outcomes of a military campaign. This class will provide students with the analytical tools to evaluate historical, ongoing, and potential military operations and to predict their potential outcomes. We will begin by discussing the organization of modern militaries and the political and social drivers of military strategy and military effectiveness. Next, we will consider the challenges to military analysis created by friction and the fog of war, looking at historical campaigns to better understand these limitations. Then, we turn to studying the campaign analysis framework for assessing military operations, and apply it to land campaigns, air campaigns, naval campaigns, counterinsurgencies, and humanitarian intervention, looking at both the broad variables and models needed to analyze these problems and specific case studies of military operations in the recent past. Finally, we consider two potential future conflicts, on the Korean Peninsula and over Taiwan, and consider the most likely outcomes of those possible future wars.

Course codes: DHP-P242

• 1-LEC (Lecture) — Wright L. Smith